The Shifting Global Order: The China-Iran-Russia-North Korea Alignment

Eveline McDermott 21 Jun 2025

The global political landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, challenging American global power in ways not seen since the Cold War's end. From East Asia to Europe and the Middle East, the United States faces unprecedented risks to its core interests. A significant factor exacerbating this challenge is the increasingly coordinated support among four key nations: China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea. This evolving alignment among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea is not merely a collection of isolated actions but a concerted effort to reshape the international order.

This deepening alignment, often described as a "new axis of upheaval," has captured considerable attention from analysts and policymakers worldwide. As these nations enhance their cooperation across economic, military, and technological domains, they present complex challenges to the existing global security framework and the interests of the United States and its allies. Understanding the nuances of this burgeoning partnership is crucial for comprehending the future trajectory of international relations.

The Evolving Geopolitical Landscape: A New Axis Emerges
Deepening Alignment: A Closer Look at the Four Nations
Military and Strategic Cooperation
- Support for Russia's War Machine
- Joint Military Drills and Proposals
Economic and Technological Collaboration
Historical Ties and Nuances
- The Complex China-North Korea Dynamic
- Beijing's Cautious Balancing Act
Western Underestimation and Misconceptions
Implications for Global Security
The Path Forward: Navigating a Multipolar World

The Evolving Geopolitical Landscape: A New Axis Emerges

The post-Cold War international order, largely shaped by American unipolarity, is undeniably shifting. The United States now confronts multifaceted risks to its interests across key strategic regions: East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Compounding this intricate situation, the intelligence community recently revealed that "America’s four great adversaries — China, Iran, North Korea and Russia — are increasingly acting in unison to undercut US interests." This statement underscores a significant shift from a fragmented set of challenges to a more coordinated, collective front. This emerging dynamic is fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape, signaling a more assertive pushback against the established global norms and institutions. The increasing alignment among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea represents a concerted effort to challenge the existing power structures and carve out a new multipolar reality.

Deepening Alignment: A Closer Look at the Four Nations

While cooperation among these four nations was expanding even before 2022, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine served as a significant accelerant, deepening their economic, military, and political ties. This deepening alignment among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is drawing considerable attention as the United States and its allies grapple with new challenges emanating from these nations. Their motivations, though varied, converge on a desire to diminish Western influence, particularly that of the United States, and to foster a more multipolar world order. This shared objective has paved the way for increased collaboration, moving beyond mere diplomatic exchanges to tangible forms of support and strategic coordination. The alignment is not monolithic, but the common thread of challenging the U.S.-led order binds them, making their collective actions a formidable force in international relations.

Military and Strategic Cooperation

The most visible aspect of this deepening alignment is the expanding military and strategic cooperation among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea. This collaboration takes various forms, from direct material support in conflicts to joint military exercises and proposals for future drills. Assessing China's strategic cooperation and coordination with Russia, Iran, and North Korea reveals a complex web of interactions aimed at bolstering their collective security and projecting power.

Support for Russia's War Machine

During its ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia has received crucial support from its partners. China, North Korea, and Iran have all contributed to Russia's war machine in different ways. Iran, for instance, has provided Russia with a steady supply of missiles and drones, which have been extensively used in attacks against Ukrainian targets. North Korea has also played a significant role, sending vast quantities of artillery shells to replenish Russian stockpiles. Furthermore, reports indicate that Pyongyang has even deployed troops to Russia to assist in the conflict, a move that underscores the depth of its commitment. While China's support has been more nuanced, focusing on economic and technological assistance rather than direct military aid, Beijing's continued trade and diplomatic backing have been indispensable for Moscow, helping to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.

Joint Military Drills and Proposals

Beyond direct military aid, the four nations have engaged in joint military exercises, signaling their intent to enhance interoperability and demonstrate their collective capabilities. China, Iran, and Russia have notably held joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman three years in a row, with the most recent iteration taking place in March 2024. These exercises serve multiple purposes: they allow the participating navies to practice complex maneuvers, improve coordination, and send a clear message about their growing strategic alignment. Russia has also proposed trilateral naval drills with China and North Korea, further indicating a desire to expand this military cooperation. Such drills are not merely symbolic; they represent a practical step towards building a more integrated security framework among these nations, challenging traditional maritime dominance in key strategic waterways.

Economic and Technological Collaboration

The alignment among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea extends significantly into the economic and technological spheres, forming a crucial pillar of their collective strategy. While North Korea's involvement is primarily visible through its political and military posturing, China, Iran, and Russia are closely working together on building a new trade and investment platform designed to support their shared political agenda. This platform aims to create alternative financial and trade mechanisms that bypass Western-dominated systems, thereby mitigating the impact of sanctions and fostering economic resilience. China's economic and trade relations with these countries are particularly vital, often involving its role in sanctions and export control evasion, which helps these nations sustain their economies despite international pressure. Furthermore, there is a growing focus on security and technology cooperation among these autocratic countries. This collaboration includes sharing expertise in areas like cyber warfare, surveillance technologies, and advanced weaponry, posing significant challenges to global security by potentially enabling more sophisticated threats and undermining international non-proliferation efforts. Their collective efforts in these areas highlight a strategic push to reduce reliance on Western technology and build self-sufficient, interconnected economies.

Historical Ties and Nuances

While the current alignment appears increasingly unified, it's important to recognize the historical context and inherent nuances in the relationships among these four nations. Russia and China, for example, have maintained diplomatic relations with North Korea and each other for more than 75 years. However, the nature of Russian and Chinese relations with North Korea could not be more different, reflecting distinct historical trajectories and strategic priorities.

The Complex China-North Korea Dynamic

North Korea is often considered China’s sole military ally, a legacy of the Korean War. Yet, as PRC historian Shen Zhihua has cautioned, this alliance is fraught with complexities and has evolved significantly over time. Beijing has historically viewed Pyongyang as a strategic buffer, but also as a source of instability due to its nuclear ambitions and unpredictable behavior. China has often walked a tightrope, balancing its security interests with international pressure to curb North Korea's proliferation activities. This intricate relationship means that while there is a foundational bond, China's engagement with North Korea is often characterized by a degree of caution and strategic calculation, rather than unconditional support.

Beijing's Cautious Balancing Act

The deepening ties among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea certainly bend towards a more integrated front. However, Beijing must tread carefully lest it be pulled deeper into conflict than it is willing to go. China's primary strategic objective remains its economic development and global influence, which could be jeopardized by overtly aligning with states that are heavily sanctioned or engaged in direct military conflicts. While China benefits from the challenges these nations pose to U.S. hegemony, it also seeks to avoid direct confrontation or being perceived as overtly supporting actions that violate international law. This cautious approach means that while China provides significant economic and diplomatic backing, it often maintains a degree of strategic ambiguity, seeking to maximize its gains while minimizing its risks.

Western Underestimation and Misconceptions

A recurring theme in the discourse surrounding the China, Iran, Russia, North Korea alignment is the tendency for Western powers to underestimate or dismiss the true extent of their coordination. There has been a perception that "the West has been too quick to dismiss the coordination among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia." This underestimation often stems from a belief that the authoritarian powers are inherently incapable of deep, sustained coordination due to their differing national interests or internal fragilities. For instance, some analyses, like a 2025 study on global arms proliferation, have suggested that "fears of a North Korean military axis with authoritarian states like China, Russia and Iran are 'overstated'," despite Pyongyang’s visible military support for the war against Ukraine. This study also estimated that the DPRK's nuclear arsenal remained around the same size as the previous year, implying a lack of significant expansion that might signal a more aggressive posture.

Similarly, a study on global arms proliferation by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (as translated by Moscow-based sources) reportedly concluded that "Russia's military axis with authoritarian states such as China, North Korea and Iran has now failed," arguing that these powers proved incapable of effective coordination. However, such assessments might overlook the strategic utility of even limited or opportunistic cooperation. While a fully integrated, NATO-like alliance may not be forming, the examples of Pyongyang’s deployment of troops to Russia to help fight Ukraine, Iran’s drone supplies, and joint naval exercises clearly demonstrate a willingness and capacity for collaboration when their interests align. The West needs to critically reassess whether these instances of cooperation are merely transactional or indicative of a deeper, evolving strategic alignment among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea.

Implications for Global Security

The deepening alignment among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea carries profound implications for global security. Their coordinated actions challenge established international norms, institutions, and the very structure of world politics. The security and technology cooperation among these autocratic countries, particularly in areas like cyber warfare, missile technology, and nuclear proliferation, poses direct threats to global stability. For instance, the estimated size of North Korea's nuclear arsenal remaining stable, as noted in a global arms proliferation study, does not diminish the threat, especially when coupled with its willingness to provide conventional arms to Russia. Their collective efforts to evade sanctions and develop alternative trade platforms also undermine the effectiveness of international pressure, potentially emboldening other rogue states.

This alignment complicates efforts to address regional conflicts, nuclear proliferation, and human rights issues. It forces the United States and its allies to confront a more unified and resilient front, demanding a recalibration of diplomatic, economic, and military strategies. The rise of this "new axis of upheaval" suggests a future where geopolitical competition is intensified, and the resolution of global challenges becomes increasingly complex, requiring innovative approaches and a deep understanding of the motivations and capabilities of these interconnected powers.

The Path Forward: Navigating a Multipolar World

Navigating this evolving geopolitical landscape, marked by the increasing alignment of China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, requires a nuanced and comprehensive strategy from the United States and its allies. Dismissing their coordination as insignificant or fleeting would be a critical error, as evidenced by their continued military, economic, and technological collaboration. Instead, policymakers must acknowledge the reality of this deepening alignment and its implications for global security and U.S. interests across East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

The path forward involves a multi-pronged approach: strengthening alliances and partnerships to present a united front, investing in robust defense capabilities, and developing innovative diplomatic and economic tools to counter their influence. It also necessitates a clear understanding of the individual and collective motivations of China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, recognizing where their interests diverge and where they converge. Engaging in strategic competition while seeking avenues for de-escalation and crisis management will be crucial to prevent miscalculation and ensure regional and global stability in an increasingly multipolar world.

Conclusion

The emergence of a more coordinated alignment among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea represents a significant shift in the global balance of power, posing a formidable challenge to the American-led international order. From their joint military exercises and mutual support in conflicts to their efforts in building alternative economic platforms and sharing critical technologies, these four nations are increasingly acting in unison to advance their shared interests and undercut Western influence. While the depth and durability of this "axis of upheaval" remain subjects of ongoing debate, the evidence of their deepening cooperation is undeniable. The West must move beyond underestimation and adopt a clear-eyed approach to understanding and responding to this complex and evolving geopolitical reality. As the world transitions into a more multipolar era, comprehending the intricacies of this burgeoning alignment is paramount for maintaining global peace and stability.

What are your thoughts on this evolving geopolitical dynamic? Do you believe the coordination among China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea will continue to deepen, or are there inherent limitations to their alliance? Share your insights in the comments below, and explore our other articles on global security and international relations for more in-depth analysis.

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