Iran-Afghanistan: Unraveling Decades Of Migration & Tensions

Montana Larkin 21 Jun 2025

The relationship between Iran and Afghanistan is a tapestry woven with threads of shared history, cultural ties, and, increasingly, complex geopolitical challenges. For over four decades, Iran has been a primary refuge for millions of Afghans fleeing conflict and instability in their homeland. What began as a humanitarian response to the Soviet invasion in 1979 has evolved into a multifaceted dynamic, now marked by escalating deportations, border skirmishes, and the ripple effects of broader regional conflicts. This article delves into the intricate layers of the Iran-Afghanistan relationship, examining the historical context of migration, the recent surge in deportations, the simmering border disputes, and the profound impact these developments have on the lives of millions.

Today, the United Nations estimates that 3.8 million displaced people live in Iran, the majority of them Afghans. This significant demographic presence underscores the long-standing role Iran has played as a host nation. However, recent years have seen a dramatic shift in Iran's approach, driven by internal economic pressures and a hardening sentiment towards its Afghan population. The once fragile system of accommodation is now under immense strain, leading to widespread concern among humanitarian organizations and the international community.

A History of Refuge and Resilience
The Intensification of Deportations
Triggers Behind Iran's Hardening Stance
Border Disputes and Water Rights
The Taliban Dilemma: Recognition and Realpolitik
The Ripple Effect of Regional Conflicts
Humanitarian Crisis and Dire Conditions
Looking Ahead: The Future of Iran-Afghan Relations

A History of Refuge and Resilience

For over 40 years, Afghans have fled to Iran to escape civil war, political upheaval, and economic devastation. The initial wave of migration began in 1979 following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, prompting millions to seek safety across the border. Iran, sharing a long border and cultural affinities, became a natural destination. Generations of Afghans have since called Iran home, establishing communities, finding work, and integrating into Iranian society to varying degrees. This historical context is crucial to understanding the current complexities of the Iran-Afghanistan dynamic. Many Afghans living in Iran today were born there, knowing no other home, yet often lacking formal documentation or full legal rights.

The influx continued through the decades of civil war in Afghanistan, the rise of the Taliban in the 1990s, and the subsequent U.S. and NATO intervention. Each period of instability in Afghanistan sent new waves of refugees and migrants into Iran. While Iran has been on the receiving end of Afghan refugees for decades, since the war against Soviet occupiers in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the sheer scale of the displacement has always presented significant challenges for the host nation. This enduring historical burden sets the stage for the current crisis, where economic pressures within Iran and renewed instability in Afghanistan are pushing the long-standing relationship to its breaking point.

The Intensification of Deportations

By late 2024, Iran’s hardening approach toward Afghan migrants and refugees was becoming increasingly clear, as deportations of undocumented Afghans intensified. What was once a fragile system of informal tolerance and sporadic crackdowns has transformed into a systematic drive to expel large numbers of Afghans. This shift has been particularly pronounced since October 2023, when authorities announced a crackdown on foreigners who they said were in the country illegally. The scale of these deportations is staggering, with profound humanitarian implications.

A Daily Exodus

Taliban officials report that as many as 3,000 Afghans are deported from Iran daily. Ahmadullah Muttaqi, head of Herat’s refugee information and public affairs committee, on Friday told The Associated Press that before June 13, between 3,500 and 4,000 Afghans without documentation were entering the province daily because of Iran’s deportation drive. This creates a grim cycle: Afghans are deported, only to attempt re-entry, or find themselves in dire straits in an Afghanistan still struggling with its own crises. Over half a million Afghans have been deported since October 2023, highlighting the sheer volume of people being forcibly returned. The numbers paint a stark picture of a massive human movement, driven by policy shifts in Tehran and the desperate search for survival and stability.

Physical Harassment and Increased Pressure

In Iran, physical harassment and deportations of “undocumented” Afghans have picked up since June, after the death of an Iranian in eastern Tehran, in which Afghan migrants were implicated. This incident appears to have fueled public sentiment and provided a pretext for more aggressive enforcement measures. The pressure on Afghans, both legal and undocumented, has intensified, making daily life increasingly precarious. Many who have called Iran home for decades now face the constant threat of expulsion, disrupting families and livelihoods built over generations. The psychological toll of living under such constant threat cannot be overstated, as communities that once felt relatively secure are now gripped by fear and uncertainty.

Triggers Behind Iran's Hardening Stance

Several factors contribute to Iran's increasingly stringent policies towards Afghan migrants. One primary driver is Iran's deteriorating economy. Sanctions, inflation, and high unemployment rates have put immense pressure on the Iranian government and its citizens. In recent years, Iranian sentiment toward Afghans has become increasingly negative as more have fled their homeland following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, and Iranians contend with a deteriorating economy. The perception that Afghan migrants are a burden on resources or take jobs from Iranians has gained traction, despite many Afghans often filling labor gaps in sectors less appealing to Iranian citizens.

Economic Woes and Public Sentiment

The economic hardship within Iran has exacerbated xenophobic sentiments. As the cost of living rises and job opportunities dwindle for Iranians, the presence of a large migrant population becomes an easy target for blame. This internal pressure provides a strong impetus for the government to be seen taking action, even if it means mass deportations that violate humanitarian principles. The argument often made is that Iran simply cannot afford to host such a large number of foreign nationals, especially those without formal status, in times of economic duress.

Security Concerns and Social Tensions

Beyond economic factors, security concerns and social tensions also play a role. The incident in June involving the death of an Iranian in eastern Tehran, allegedly linked to Afghan migrants, illustrates how isolated events can quickly escalate into broader crackdowns. While the details of such incidents are often complex, they can be leveraged to justify more aggressive policies. This creates a dangerous cycle where negative perceptions are reinforced, leading to increased discrimination and harassment against the Afghan community, further marginalizing an already vulnerable population. The narrative of "undocumented" Afghans posing a security risk or contributing to social problems becomes a convenient justification for policies of expulsion.

Border Disputes and Water Rights

The complex relationship between Iran and Afghanistan is not solely defined by migration; it is also marked by persistent border tensions, particularly over vital resources like water. The Taliban and Iran exchanged heavy gunfire Saturday on the Islamic Republic’s border with Afghanistan, sharply escalating rising tensions between the two nations amid a dispute over water rights. This incident was not isolated; the Taliban and Iran have exchanged heavy gunfire on the Islamic Republic’s border with Afghanistan on multiple occasions. The shooting Saturday sharply escalates rising tensions between the two countries amid a dispute over water rights.

The Helmand River Dispute

At the heart of this dispute lies the Helmand River, a crucial water source for both countries. Iran accuses the Taliban of restricting the flow of water from the Helmand, violating a 1973 treaty that guarantees Iran a certain share. Afghanistan, grappling with its own water scarcity issues and the impact of climate change, often attributes reduced flow to drought conditions. However, Iran views the Taliban's actions as a deliberate act of withholding. These disputes over shared natural resources are highly sensitive and can quickly turn violent, as evidenced by the border clashes. The scarcity of water in the region makes this a deeply existential issue for both nations, fueling a volatile dynamic along their shared frontier.

Implications for Regional Stability

The border clashes are more than just isolated incidents; they are symptomatic of deeper mistrust and a lack of effective communication between Tehran and the Taliban administration in Kabul. These confrontations risk destabilizing an already fragile region. While both sides have an interest in avoiding a full-blown conflict, the water dispute, combined with the presence of armed forces along the border, creates a volatile environment where miscalculations can have severe consequences. The international community watches with concern, as any significant escalation could draw in other regional actors and further complicate the humanitarian and security landscape of Central Asia.

The Taliban Dilemma: Recognition and Realpolitik

Iran doesn’t formally recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan, which seized power in 2021 as U.S. and NATO forces withdrew from the country following two decades of war. This non-recognition aligns with the international community’s stance, reflecting concerns over human rights, governance, and the Taliban’s legitimacy. However, despite this official position, Tehran maintains political and economic ties with Kabul and has allowed the Taliban to manage Afghanistan’s embassy in Iran’s capital. It was the first such meeting since the Taliban’s return to power.

Navigating a Complex Relationship

This dual approach – non-recognition coupled with practical engagement – is a testament to Iran’s complex foreign policy and its strategic interests in Afghanistan. Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan and has significant security and economic concerns tied to its neighbor’s stability. Maintaining channels of communication with the de facto authorities, even if not formally recognized, is a pragmatic necessity. This realpolitik approach allows Iran to address issues such as border security, drug trafficking, and the flow of refugees, while still signaling its disapproval of the Taliban’s governance model. It's a delicate balancing act, attempting to influence events in Afghanistan without legitimizing the regime in the eyes of the world.

Impact on Afghan Migrants

The ambiguity of Iran’s relationship with the Taliban also impacts Afghan migrants. While the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 initially led to a surge in Afghans seeking refuge in Iran, with more than 10,000 legal and illegal Afghan immigrants entering Iran every day, the subsequent hardening of Iran’s stance has created a paradoxical situation. Afghans are fleeing a regime that Iran does not officially recognize, only to find themselves increasingly unwelcome in the very country that has historically offered them refuge. This dynamic leaves many Afghans in a precarious limbo, caught between an oppressive regime at home and an increasingly hostile host country, with limited options for safe and stable living. The lack of a clear, internationally recognized government in Afghanistan also complicates efforts to repatriate or integrate refugees, creating a persistent humanitarian challenge.

The Ripple Effect of Regional Conflicts

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and Central Asia is interconnected, and conflicts in one area inevitably send ripples across others. The impact of the conflict between Iran and Israel is being felt by Afghans both inside their homeland and across the border in Iran. As Israeli strikes intensify, Afghan refugees in Iran find themselves in danger once again — stuck in a country that is no longer safe with no way to return home. This highlights the extreme vulnerability of displaced populations, who are often the first to suffer the indirect consequences of broader regional tensions.

Heightened Instability and Insecurity

When Iran faces external pressures or engages in regional conflicts, its internal focus often shifts, and its policies towards migrants can become more restrictive. The perceived need for internal cohesion and security can lead to increased scrutiny and pressure on foreign populations. For Afghan refugees, this means an already precarious existence becomes even more uncertain. They may face heightened discrimination, increased surveillance, and a greater risk of deportation as authorities prioritize national security over humanitarian concerns. The fear of being caught in the crossfire, or of being seen as a liability during times of heightened tension, adds another layer of stress to their already difficult lives.

Diversion of Resources and Attention

Furthermore, regional conflicts can divert resources and attention away from humanitarian issues. If Iran is preoccupied with managing its own security challenges, its capacity or willingness to address the needs of Afghan refugees may diminish. This can lead to a reduction in services, a lack of protection, and an overall deterioration of living conditions for displaced Afghans. The fighting is exacerbating the already dire conditions in both Afghanistan and for Afghans residing in Iran, creating a humanitarian crisis within a crisis. The international community's attention also gets fragmented, making it harder to garner support and resources for the long-standing needs of Afghan refugees.

Humanitarian Crisis and Dire Conditions

The combined effect of mass deportations, border closures, and regional instability has created a deepening humanitarian crisis for Afghans. Whether they are being forcibly returned to Afghanistan or living precariously in Iran, their conditions are dire. Many of those deported return to a country still reeling from decades of conflict, economic collapse, and natural disasters, with limited infrastructure and opportunities to reintegrate. The returnees often lack shelter, food, and basic services, exacerbating the already overwhelming humanitarian needs within Afghanistan.

Vulnerability of Undocumented Afghans

The situation is particularly grim for undocumented Afghans in Iran. Having entered the country without formal papers, they live in constant fear of arrest and deportation. They are often exploited in the informal labor market, paid low wages, and denied access to essential services like healthcare and education. Their lack of legal status makes them highly vulnerable to abuse, harassment, and discrimination. Dozens of Afghans were reportedly killed by Iranian forces while illegally crossing the border, highlighting the extreme dangers associated with seeking refuge without official channels. This vulnerability is compounded by the increasingly negative public sentiment in Iran, making their daily lives a struggle for survival and dignity.

Challenges for Aid Organizations

Humanitarian organizations face immense challenges in assisting this population. Access to undocumented Afghans can be difficult due to their hidden status and fear of authorities. Providing aid to returnees in Afghanistan is also complex, given the country’s own internal challenges and the limited capacity of local and international aid agencies. The sheer volume of people needing assistance, coupled with political sensitivities and funding shortfalls, means that many vulnerable Afghans fall through the cracks. The international community's response has been insufficient to meet the scale of the crisis, leaving millions in a desperate situation with little hope for a stable future.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Iran-Afghan Relations

The future of Iran-Afghanistan relations remains uncertain, fraught with challenges but also opportunities for cautious engagement. The immediate priority for both nations, and the international community, must be to address the escalating humanitarian crisis. This requires a more humane approach to migration management, ensuring that deportations are conducted safely and humanely, and that returned individuals receive adequate support upon arrival in Afghanistan. Dialogue between Tehran and Kabul, despite the lack of formal recognition, is essential to manage border issues, water disputes, and the flow of people effectively.

Pathways for Dialogue and Cooperation

Despite the tensions, Iran and Afghanistan share a long history and common interests, particularly in regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. Opportunities for cooperation exist in areas such as trade, cultural exchange, and regional security initiatives, provided that a foundation of trust can be built. Addressing the root causes of migration in Afghanistan – including economic instability, lack of governance, and ongoing conflict – is crucial for a sustainable solution. This requires sustained international engagement and support for Afghanistan’s development and stability, which would in turn alleviate pressure on neighboring countries like Iran. The path forward is complex, demanding nuanced diplomacy and a recognition of the shared destiny of these two interconnected nations.

The Iran-Afghanistan relationship, with its deep historical roots and intricate modern challenges, serves as a poignant reminder of the human cost of geopolitical shifts and regional instability. Millions of Afghans have called Iran home for decades, but they have been leaving in large numbers since October 2023, when authorities announced a crackdown on foreigners who it said were in the country illegally. The ongoing deportations, coupled with border skirmishes and the broader impact of regional conflicts, paint a bleak picture for a population already scarred by decades of war. A sustainable and humane resolution requires not only bilateral cooperation but also concerted international efforts to address the underlying drivers of displacement and to uphold the dignity and rights of all individuals caught in this complex web.

We hope this comprehensive look into the Iran-Afghanistan dynamic has provided valuable insights. What are your thoughts on the escalating tensions and humanitarian crisis? Share your perspectives in the comments below, and don't forget to share this article to raise awareness about this critical issue. For more in-depth analysis of regional geopolitics, explore our other articles on the site.

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