Navigating The Triangle: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran Dynamics

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is perpetually in flux, a complex tapestry woven with historical grievances, strategic ambitions, and shifting alliances. At the heart of this intricate web lie the intertwined destinies of three powerful nations: Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Their relationships, often characterized by rivalry and tension, dictate much of the region's stability and future trajectory. Understanding the dynamics between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran is crucial for grasping the broader challenges and opportunities in this pivotal part of the world.

For decades, these three states have engaged in a delicate dance of power, sometimes directly confronting each other, other times operating through proxies, and occasionally, surprisingly, finding common ground or at least a temporary détente. Recent events, particularly the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, have once again thrust their complex interplay into the global spotlight, forcing a re-evaluation of long-held assumptions about regional alignments and potential pathways to peace or conflict.

The Historical Rivalry: Saudi Arabia vs. Iran

The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is arguably the most enduring and deeply rooted in the Middle East. For decades, these two regional giants have vied for influence, often through ideological, sectarian, and geopolitical competition. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Muslim kingdom and guardian of Islam's holiest sites, has historically positioned itself as the leader of the Sunni world. Iran, on the other hand, is a Shiite Islamic Republic, born from a revolutionary movement that seeks to export its ideology and challenge the established order.

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This rivalry has manifested in various proxy conflicts across the region, from Yemen to Syria and Lebanon. The underlying tensions are profound. As one prominent quote from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman illustrates the depth of this animosity, he once stated that Iran’s Supreme Leader was "worse than Hitler." This stark rhetoric underscores the deep-seated mistrust and ideological chasm that has long separated Riyadh and Tehran. Diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia were famously broken off, reflecting years of heightened tensions and a lack of direct communication channels.

However, the landscape has seen recent shifts. In a surprising turn of events in 2023, Riyadh and Tehran reconciled, restoring diplomatic ties after years of estrangement. This reconciliation, brokered by China, signaled a potential new chapter, though it did not erase the fundamental disagreements that persist. Despite this diplomatic thaw, the underlying competition for regional dominance between Saudi Arabia and Iran remains a defining feature of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

The Israeli Factor: A Common Adversary?

For many years, the conventional wisdom held that Arab states and Israel were diametrically opposed, united only by their conflict over the Palestinian issue. However, the rise of Iran as a perceived existential threat has subtly, and sometimes overtly, shifted this dynamic. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel view Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missile capabilities, and its network of regional proxies (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and various militias in Iraq and Syria) as significant dangers to their security and regional stability.

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This shared concern over Iran has, at times, led to a tacit, if not explicit, alignment between Israel and some Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. While direct diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Jerusalem remained elusive for a long time, there were clear indications of behind-the-scenes cooperation and intelligence sharing. The idea was that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," with Iran serving as the common "enemy" that could potentially bridge historical divides between Israel and the Arab world. This evolving relationship adds another layer of complexity to the dynamics between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

Shifting Sands: Saudi Arabia's Evolving Stance on Israel and Iran

Saudi Arabia's foreign policy has been undergoing significant transformations under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. While traditionally a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause and resistant to formal ties with Israel without a comprehensive peace deal, Riyadh has shown increasing pragmatism in its approach to regional security, particularly concerning the Iranian threat.

The Abraham Accords and Beyond

The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, saw the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain normalize diplomatic relations with Israel. This landmark agreement, facilitated by the United States, was a game-changer, breaking decades of Arab consensus on linking peace with Israel to Palestinian statehood. While the UAE normalized its diplomatic relations with Israel four years ago, Saudi Arabia was widely reported to be on the verge of doing the same. Negotiations were actively underway, fueled by a shared desire for regional stability, economic cooperation, and a united front against Iran's influence.

This potential normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel was seen as the "holy grail" of Middle East diplomacy, promising to reshape regional alliances and potentially isolate Iran further. The prospect of such a deal highlighted the evolving priorities of Gulf states, where economic diversification and security concerns increasingly outweighed traditional ideological stances.

The Hamas-Israel Conflict: A Derailment?

However, the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict in October 2023 dramatically derailed these normalization negotiations. The intense fighting in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis that ensued made it politically untenable for Saudi Arabia to proceed with formal ties with Israel. The Saudi leadership, while still concerned about Iran, had to respond to overwhelming public sentiment and regional solidarity with the Palestinians. This incident underscored the fragility of the emerging alliances and the enduring power of the Palestinian issue to disrupt broader regional shifts.

Despite the pause in normalization talks, the underlying strategic calculations remain. Riyadh's condemnation of recent Israeli actions against Iran, as seen in the "Data Kalimat," highlights a nuanced position: while wary of Iran, Saudi Arabia also seeks to prevent regional escalation and maintain its own sovereign standing. This balancing act is a key feature of the current dynamics between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Regional Proxy Wars

Iran's foreign policy is largely driven by its revolutionary ideology, its quest for regional hegemony, and its ambition to develop a nuclear program. The international community, particularly Israel and many Gulf states, views Iran's nuclear activities with deep suspicion, fearing they could lead to the development of nuclear weapons. This concern has been a major flashpoint, leading to sanctions and military threats.

Beyond its nuclear program, Iran also exerts influence through a network of proxies and allied non-state actors across the Middle East. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, various Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and to some extent, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine. These proxies allow Iran to project power and challenge its rivals without direct military engagement, making it a formidable, albeit unconventional, regional force. The incident where projectiles were traced to Iran, despite its stringent denials, and the subsequent "desire to avoid a repeat of the incident prompted a new and sustained effort by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab" states, illustrates the tangible threat perceived from Iran's actions.

These proxy wars, often fought on the soil of other nations, exacerbate regional instability and draw in external powers. The constant tension stemming from Iran's actions and ambitions is a primary driver of the complex relationships between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

The Role of External Powers: US and Russia

The intricate dance between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran is heavily influenced by the involvement of major global powers, primarily the United States and, increasingly, Russia.

Trump's Era: Pressure on Iran

During Donald Trump's first US presidency, there was a clear strategic alignment between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates in pushing for a stronger stance against Iran. Gulf countries supported Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), believing that "maximum pressure" would curb Iran's regional aggression and nuclear ambitions. This period saw increased coordination aimed at isolating Tehran, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE actively encouraging Washington to take a harder line. This policy of pressure, however, did not lead to a collapse of the Iranian regime but rather, in some cases, an intensification of its regional activities and nuclear program.

Mediation Efforts and Diplomatic Channels

Despite the pressure, there have always been calls for diplomacy. An official with the Iranian presidency once told CNN that "Diplomacy with Iran can 'easily' be started again if US President Donald Trump orders Israel’s leadership to stop striking the country." This highlights Iran's perspective on the US role and the potential for de-escalation through diplomatic means, even if conditional. More recently, the UAE president discussed the conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin through a telephonic conversation, who offered to mediate. This indicates a broader international interest in de-escalation and the potential for non-Western powers to play a mediating role in the region.

The involvement of these external powers adds another layer of complexity, as their own geopolitical interests often intersect with or diverge from those of the regional players, influencing the dynamics between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

Gulf States' Concerns: Spillover Risks

While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have often aligned with Israel against Iran, they also harbor significant concerns about the potential for regional escalation. Israel's attacks on Iran are putting pressure on the Gulf states, who worry they too could be drawn into the escalating conflict. Their economies are heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, which are vulnerable to disruptions caused by regional instability. Any major conflict involving Iran, Israel, and potentially the United States, could have devastating consequences for their security and prosperity.

This fear of spillover is a crucial factor shaping their responses to recent events. Even when condemning Israeli actions, their underlying motivation is often to prevent a wider conflagration that could engulf their own territories. This delicate balancing act—maintaining a strong stance against Iran while simultaneously trying to de-escalate direct confrontations—is a constant challenge for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Their strategic decisions are heavily influenced by the need to protect their national interests from the volatile interplay between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

Recent Tensions: Israeli Strikes and Saudi Condemnation

The most recent escalation has brought the complex relationships between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran into sharp focus. Riyadh, long a Tehran rival before reconciling in 2023, strongly condemned a wave of strikes that Israel launched against military and nuclear sites in Iran on Friday (June 13, 2025). This condemnation was swift and unequivocal. The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the heinous Israeli attacks against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran," and further reiterated, "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggressions against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine..."

Saudi Arabia led Arab condemnation of Israel’s strikes on Iran early on Friday, which targeted multiple sites it linked to the country’s nuclear program and killed at least two top officials. The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly condemned "Israel’s strikes against nuclear and military targets in Iran." This strong public stance by Saudi Arabia, despite its own historical grievances with Iran, underscores a regional desire to prevent a full-blown war. Alongside Saudi Arabia, other Islamic nations, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), also condemned the Israeli strikes in Iran, indicating a broader Arab consensus on the need for de-escalation and respect for sovereignty.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler on Monday called on Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty and refrain from attacking Iranian soil, while appearing to step up criticism of Jerusalem, accusing it of undermining regional stability. This direct appeal highlights Saudi Arabia's concern over the potential for a dangerous escalation and its evolving role as a voice for regional stability, even when it involves criticizing a potential future partner. The fact that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan also spoke to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian in recent days, as part of "Israel Iran war live updates," signifies the crucial role of direct communication channels in managing the crisis and underscores the intricate relationships at play between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

The Path Forward: Navigating a Complex Future

The relationships between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are multifaceted and constantly evolving. They are shaped by historical rivalries, ideological differences, security concerns, and the influence of external powers. While the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalization remains on hold due to the Gaza conflict, the underlying strategic imperative to counter Iranian influence persists for both nations. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia's recent reconciliation with Iran and its strong condemnation of Israeli strikes indicate a desire for regional de-escalation and a more balanced foreign policy that prioritizes stability over outright confrontation.

The future trajectory of the Middle East will largely depend on how these three powerful actors manage their complex interactions. Will shared security concerns eventually lead to renewed attempts at rapprochement between Riyadh and Jerusalem? Or will continued Israeli-Iranian hostilities drag the region into a wider conflict, forcing Gulf states to choose sides? The balancing act for Saudi Arabia, in particular, will be crucial: maintaining its strategic interests while navigating the demands of regional solidarity and de-escalation.

The current situation underscores the urgent need for robust diplomatic channels, effective mediation efforts, and a clear understanding of each nation's red lines. The stability of the entire Middle East hinges on the delicate equilibrium maintained (or lost) between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

We hope this in-depth analysis has provided valuable insights into the intricate dynamics of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. What are your thoughts on the future of these relationships? Do you believe a lasting peace is possible, or are further escalations inevitable? Share your perspectives in the comments below, and consider sharing this article with others interested in understanding the complex geopolitics of the Middle East.

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