Syria's Shifting Sands: Iran, Russia, And The Future

Curt Torp 18 Jun 2025

The intricate geopolitical tapestry of the Middle East is perpetually woven with threads of alliances, rivalries, and strategic interests. Among the most significant and enduring partnerships shaping this landscape has been the collaboration between Iran and Russia in Syria. Their intertwined destinies in Damascus have not only dictated the course of the Syrian civil war but continue to influence regional stability, often with profound implications for international relations. Understanding the depth and evolution of this alliance is crucial to grasping the complexities of contemporary Middle Eastern politics.

For over a decade, the world has watched as Syria transformed into a battleground, a proxy stage where regional and global powers have vied for influence. At the heart of the Assad regime's survival and subsequent consolidation of power lies the unwavering support from two key allies: Iran and Russia. Their intervention, driven by distinct yet converging strategic imperatives, fundamentally altered the trajectory of the conflict, preventing the collapse of the Syrian government and reshaping the geopolitical map of the Levant. However, as the conflict evolves and new challenges emerge, the nature of their involvement and future influence in Syria are subjects of intense scrutiny and ongoing re-evaluation.

A Shared History: The Foundations of Influence
- Pre-War Alliances: Damascus at the Crossroads
- Iran's Enduring Bond with Syria
The Syrian Civil War: A Crucible of Cooperation
- Iran's Crucial Role in Regime Survival
- Russia's Decisive Military Intervention
The Apex of Collaboration: Aleppo and Power Consolidation
Shifting Tides: Challenges and Setbacks for Major Players
- External Pressures and Internal Dynamics
- The Astana Process and Evolving Diplomatic Landscapes
The Evolving Landscape: Iran, Russia, and Regional Powers
Israel's Shadow: Syria's Cautious Silence Amidst Escalation
The Future of Influence: Beyond the Major Players?
Conclusion: Navigating Syria's Complex Future

A Shared History: The Foundations of Influence

The deep involvement of Iran and Russia in Syria is not a phenomenon born solely from the crucible of the civil war. Rather, it is rooted in decades of strategic alignment and shared geopolitical interests. Prior to the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011, both Moscow and Tehran had their own respective strategic partnerships with Damascus, viewing Syria as a critical linchpin in their broader Middle East policies.

Pre-War Alliances: Damascus at the Crossroads

For Russia, Syria represented its last remaining military foothold in the Mediterranean, a vital warm-water port at Tartus, and a key client state for its arms industry. The Assad regime, under both Hafez and Bashar al-Assad, consistently aligned with Moscow on international issues, providing Russia with a reliable partner in a region often dominated by Western influence. This long-standing relationship ensured Russia's continued relevance in Middle Eastern affairs, a counterweight to NATO expansion and Western geopolitical maneuvers.

Iran's Enduring Bond with Syria

Iran and Syria, meanwhile, have had strong relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. This alliance, often referred to as the "Axis of Resistance," was forged out of shared opposition to Israel and a mutual desire to counter American influence in the region. Syria provided Iran with a crucial land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a vital proxy in Iran's regional strategy. For Tehran, the survival of the Assad regime was seen as being crucial to its regional interests, particularly its ability to project power and influence across the Levant and challenge the regional order. This deep-seated strategic imperative meant that when the uprising developed into the Syrian civil war, Iran was poised to offer significant support to its long-standing ally.

The Syrian Civil War: A Crucible of Cooperation

The eruption of the Syrian civil war in 2011 presented an existential threat to the Assad regime. As rebel groups gained ground and the government's grip on power weakened, the strategic partnerships with Iran and Russia became not just important, but absolutely vital for survival. Both countries were huge backers of the Assad regime for decades, seeing Syria as the centerpiece of their Middle East policies. This conviction led to their heavy intervention around 2015 when Assad's regime was on its back foot.

Iran's Crucial Role in Regime Survival

From the early days of the conflict, there were increasing reports of Iranian military support, and of Iranian training of the National Defence Forces both in Syria and Iran. Iran's involvement was multifaceted, ranging from providing financial aid and military advisors to deploying proxy militias like Hezbollah and even elements of its own Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iranian troops are also reported to have fought alongside Syrian government forces in 2015, demonstrating a direct commitment to the conflict. This ground-level support, combined with the strategic guidance offered by figures like Qassem Soleimani, was instrumental in shoring up the Syrian army and preventing its collapse in the face of widespread rebellion.

Russia's Decisive Military Intervention

While Iran provided the crucial ground support and ideological backing, Russia's intervention in September 2015 marked a decisive turning point. Russia carried out airstrikes in Syria after rebels launched an offensive against the Syrian government, dramatically shifting the military balance. This air campaign, coupled with the deployment of advanced weaponry and military advisors, provided the Syrian army with the firepower and tactical advantage it desperately needed. Russia and Iran have supported Syrian President Bashar Assad for years, but the 2015 intervention solidified their joint commitment to his survival. This coordinated effort between Iran and Russia in Syria was a powerful demonstration of their shared resolve to prevent regime change and protect their strategic interests.

The Apex of Collaboration: Aleppo and Power Consolidation

The most illustrative example of the synergy between Iran and Russia in Syria was the brutal and protracted siege of Aleppo. This pivotal battle, which lasted for months and culminated in late 2016, showcased the combined might and strategic coordination of the two allies. The siege of Aleppo illustrated Tehran and Moscow’s joint effort to further Assad’s consolidation of power in Syria, thereby enhancing the Syrian government's control over key urban centers.

Russian air power relentlessly pounded rebel positions, paving the way for ground advances by Syrian army units, Iranian-backed militias, and Hezbollah fighters. This division of labor – Russian air superiority complementing Iranian-led ground forces – proved devastatingly effective. The fall of Aleppo was a monumental victory for the Assad regime and its allies, marking a significant turning point in the war. It not only crippled the opposition but also solidified the government's control over Syria's major cities, demonstrating that the combined military and strategic prowess of Iran and Russia in Syria was a force to be reckoned with. The effort ultimately succeeded in December, when Mr. Assad's forces, backed by Russia and Iran, recaptured the city, dealing a severe blow to the opposition.

Shifting Tides: Challenges and Setbacks for Major Players

While the initial phase of their intervention saw remarkable success, the dynamics for Iran and Russia in Syria have not remained static. The protracted nature of the conflict, coupled with evolving regional and international pressures, has introduced new complexities and even setbacks for both Moscow and Tehran. The notion that Russia and Iran are no longer the major players in Syria, while perhaps an overstatement, reflects a growing recognition of the challenges they face.

External Pressures and Internal Dynamics

Both Iran and Russia are stretched by conflicts of their own. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has diverted significant military resources and attention away from Syria. This has inevitably impacted its operational tempo and strategic priorities in the Levant. Iran, meanwhile, faces its own economic challenges and regional tensions, particularly with Israel and the United States. These external pressures mean that both countries have experienced setbacks in Syria after a rebel offensive in the northwest of the country, highlighting the vulnerabilities in their consolidated positions. As the war drags on well into its third year and Iran and Hezbollah consolidate their influence in Syria, Russia could find its leverage shifting, leading to a more complex power dynamic within the alliance itself.

The Astana Process and Evolving Diplomatic Landscapes

The diplomatic track, particularly the Astana Process, involving Russia, Iran, and Turkey, has also shaped the landscape. The foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkiye attend a meeting on the crisis in Syria in the framework of the Astana process on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Doha, Qatar, December 7, 2024. This trilateral format, while ostensibly aimed at de-escalation and a political settlement, also reflects the complex and often competing interests of the involved parties. Turkey's significant military presence in northern Syria and its support for certain rebel factions introduce another layer of complexity, often requiring delicate balancing acts from Moscow and Tehran.

The Evolving Landscape: Iran, Russia, and Regional Powers

The Syrian conflict has never been a bilateral affair between the regime and its opposition; it has always been a regional and international proxy war. As the dust settles on the major fighting, the roles of Iran and Russia in Syria are increasingly being viewed through the prism of other regional powers. Regional powers, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are attempting to navigate their relationships with Iran amidst the crisis, recognizing the enduring Iranian presence and influence in Syria.

While Russia and Iran have undeniably been the primary external backers of the Assad regime, their long-term objectives and methods of influence are not always perfectly aligned. Russia, for instance, has shown a greater willingness to engage with other regional actors, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, to secure its broader strategic interests. This pragmatism sometimes puts it at odds with Iran's more ideological approach, which prioritizes the "Axis of Resistance" and confronting perceived adversaries. Despite close ties with Iran, Russia stands aside as Israel attacks Iranian targets in Syria, illustrating a nuanced approach where Moscow prioritizes its de-confliction mechanisms with Israel over Tehran's security concerns. This dynamic highlights that while they are allies, their interests are not always identical, and each maintains its own independent foreign policy objectives.

Israel's Shadow: Syria's Cautious Silence Amidst Escalation

One of the most persistent and destabilizing factors in Syria's post-conflict landscape is the ongoing tension between Iran and Israel. Syria has maintained a cautious silence regarding the escalating conflict, despite missiles frequently crossing its airspace. This reticence stems from its weakened military and economy, limiting its ability to respond forcefully. Syria's sovereignty is routinely violated by Israeli airstrikes, primarily targeting Iranian assets, weapons convoys, and Hezbollah positions. These strikes, often carried out with tacit Russian acquiescence, underscore the limits of the Assad regime's agency and the complex web of allegiances in the region.

For Iran, these attacks represent a direct challenge to its regional influence and military build-up. For Russia, the situation is delicate. While it is an ally of both Syria and Iran, Russia also maintains a de-confliction line with Israel to prevent accidental clashes. This balancing act often means that Russia does not actively intervene to prevent Israeli strikes, a point of contention that sometimes strains its relationship with Tehran. The ongoing Israeli campaign serves as a constant reminder of the volatile nature of the Syrian theatre and the persistent threat of broader regional escalation, further complicating the strategic calculations of Iran and Russia in Syria.

The Future of Influence: Beyond the Major Players?

As Syria slowly transitions from active conflict to a fragile peace, the question of who holds ultimate sway remains pertinent. While Iran and Russia have been instrumental in preserving the Assad regime, their future roles are subject to ongoing re-evaluation. The long-term economic reconstruction of Syria, for instance, will require massive investment, and it remains unclear whether Moscow and Tehran have the resources or the international backing to lead such an effort comprehensively.

Moreover, the internal dynamics within Syria itself are crucial. If the rebel groups in Syria cannot build a transitional government of unity and stability, other actors will move in quickly to fill the vacuum. This suggests that while Iran and Russia in Syria have secured the regime's survival, they may not have secured its long-term stability or their own unchallenged dominance. Other regional and international players, including Turkey, the Gulf States, and even the United States, continue to exert influence through various means, from humanitarian aid to proxy support. The future of Syria is likely to be a multi-polar affair, with Iran and Russia as significant, but not necessarily exclusive, power brokers. In a recent call between Russia’s President, Vladimir V. Putin, and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, the two leaders expressed “unconditional support” for Syria’s government, calling the ongoing efforts vital. This reiterates their commitment, yet the practicalities of maintaining such influence in a shifting landscape remain a challenge.

Conclusion: Navigating Syria's Complex Future

The alliance between Iran and Russia in Syria has been a defining feature of the past decade in the Middle East. From their pre-war strategic partnerships to their decisive military interventions, both nations played an indispensable role in preventing the collapse of the Assad regime and reshaping the geopolitical realities of the region. The siege of Aleppo stands as a testament to their effective, albeit brutal, cooperation.

However, the landscape is continuously evolving. With Russia preoccupied by the war in Ukraine, and Iran facing its own domestic and regional pressures, the nature of their engagement in Syria is undergoing a subtle but significant shift. While they remain staunch allies of Damascus, their influence is being tested by new challenges, including Israeli airstrikes, the complexities of the Astana Process, and the potential for other regional actors to fill any perceived power vacuum. The future of Syria will likely be characterized by a complex interplay of internal and external forces, where the enduring, yet adapting, roles of Iran and Russia will continue to be central. As the world watches, the next chapter of Syria's story will undoubtedly be shaped by how these two key players navigate the shifting sands of a volatile region. Share your thoughts below on what you believe the future holds for Iran and Russia's involvement in Syria, or explore our other articles on Middle Eastern geopolitics for more in-depth analysis.

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