Iran & Turkey: Navigating A Complex Regional Dynamic

Mr. Casey Boyer 17 Jun 2025

The relationship between Iran and Turkey is a tapestry woven with threads of cooperation and competition, a dynamic that has shaped the Middle East for centuries. Far from a simple alliance or outright rivalry, the intricate dance between these two regional powers is characterized by pragmatic engagement, even amidst profound ideological and geopolitical divergences. Understanding the nuances of Iran and Turkey relations is crucial for grasping the broader regional security landscape, as their interactions often dictate the ebb and flow of stability across the Caucasus, Syria, and beyond. This complex interplay, often marked by "recurrent patterns of amity and enmity," as noted in recent analyses, underscores a pragmatic approach where both nations prioritize their strategic interests while navigating deep-seated differences.

From historical ties stretching back centuries to modern-day proxy conflicts, economic imperatives often take precedence over political disagreements. This article delves into the multifaceted nature of Iran and Turkey relations, exploring the historical foundations, economic drivers, geopolitical rivalries, and the diplomatic efforts that define their ongoing engagement in a volatile region.

Historical Foundations: Four Centuries of Coexistence
A Modern Rivalry: Shifting Dynamics Post-1990s
Economic Imperatives: The Unifying Force in Iran and Turkey Relations
- Trade as a Stabilizer: Beyond Political Divides
- Energy Security and Sanctions Evasion: A Shared Economic Goal
Geopolitical Fault Lines: Competing for Regional Influence
- Syria and the Caucasus: A Proxy Battleground
- The Gaza War's Shadow: Diverging Interests Amidst Crisis
High-Level Engagements: Diplomacy Amidst Discord
The Nuclear Question and Western Relations
Future Prospects: Overcoming Tensions and Sustaining Cooperation
Conclusion: A Pragmatic Partnership in a Volatile Region

Historical Foundations: Four Centuries of Coexistence

The historical narrative of Iran and Turkey relations is remarkably distinct from many other regional rivalries. For over four centuries, bilateral relations between Turkey and Iran have been characterized by relative peace and stability. This long period of peaceful coexistence, particularly since the Treaty of Zuhab in 1639, is a testament to a shared understanding of borders and a pragmatic approach to neighborly conduct. While empires rose and fell, and ideologies shifted, a fundamental respect for territorial integrity largely prevailed, setting a unique precedent in a region often defined by conflict.

Following the tumultuous early 20th century, the founding of the modern Republic of Turkey in 1923 under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and the creation of an absolutist monarchy in Iran in 1925 under Reza Shah Pahlavi marked a new chapter. Both ruling regimes sought to consolidate their domestic power and pursue independent foreign policies, often looking westward for modernization models while maintaining their unique cultural identities. This era saw a period of cautious cooperation, focusing on shared interests in secular governance (at least initially in Iran) and national development. Despite the significant ideological shifts that would later occur, particularly with the Iranian Revolution, the underlying framework of bilateral relations retained elements of this historical pragmatism, demonstrating a deep-seated recognition of their intertwined destinies in the region.

A Modern Rivalry: Shifting Dynamics Post-1990s

While the historical record points to centuries of peace, the past few decades have seen a significant shift in the nature of Iran and Turkey relations. The relations between the two countries have been characterized by "recurrent patterns of amity and enmity" in the past two decades, reflecting a complex interplay of shared interests and competing ambitions. This dynamic became particularly pronounced after the 1990s, as both nations emerged as significant regional powers, each seeking to expand its influence.

The conflict, or rather the heightened tension, has its roots in a period of strained relations between Iran and Turkey after the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The revolutionary zeal of Iran, coupled with its support for non-state actors, often clashed with Turkey's more secular, pro-Western foreign policy and its NATO membership. Despite the two countries cooperating in a wide variety of fields, including economic and counter-terrorism efforts, Iran and Turkey have competed for influence since the 1990s. This competition often plays out in proxy conflicts across the region, particularly in areas of strategic importance. A notable instance of this underlying tension occurred in September 2011, when Turkey hosted the establishment of a NATO missile shield, a move that caused a significant crisis with Iran, which viewed it as a direct threat to its security and a tool for Western containment.

Economic Imperatives: The Unifying Force in Iran and Turkey Relations

Despite the geopolitical friction, economic imperatives frequently serve as a powerful unifying force in Iran and Turkey relations. Turkey consistently prioritizes trade and economic relations over political disagreements with its eastern neighbor. This pragmatic approach is rooted in several strategic considerations. A stable Iran is profoundly in Turkey's interest, as Ankara wants to prevent any disruptions to its energy supplies, particularly natural gas, and to avoid any influx of refugees that could destabilize its eastern borders. The economic ties are not merely transactional; they are foundational to Turkey's energy security and regional stability.

High-level diplomatic engagements frequently underscore this economic focus. During his most recent visit to Tehran on July 19, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, vowed closer economic cooperation. This commitment was reiterated during their joint press conference in Ankara on January 24, 2024, where both sides again repeated their pledge to increase bilateral trade to an ambitious $30 billion per year. This target, while challenging, reflects the mutual recognition that economic prosperity is a shared goal that can transcend political differences. A wide range of circumstances, including sanctions on Iran and global energy market dynamics, have shaped Iran and Turkey's economic relations, pushing them towards greater interdependence.

Trade as a Stabilizer: Beyond Political Divides

The sheer volume and potential of bilateral trade act as a significant stabilizer in Iran and Turkey relations. Despite differing foreign policy priorities and conflicting interests in regional hotspots, the two regional powers have managed to compartmentalize their relations by handling geopolitical and economic issues in isolation from each other. This compartmentalization allows for continued economic engagement even when political rhetoric is heated or proxy conflicts are ongoing. For instance, Turkey is considering opening new border crossings with eastern neighbor Iran, as President Tayyip Erdoğan stated after talks with his Iranian counterpart, signaling a clear intent to revive and expand trade routes. This move demonstrates a tangible commitment to bolstering economic ties, recognizing that increased connectivity can lead to mutual benefits and foster a more stable relationship.

Energy Security and Sanctions Evasion: A Shared Economic Goal

Energy security is a cornerstone of the economic partnership between Iran and Turkey. Iran, with its vast natural gas and oil reserves, is a crucial energy supplier for Turkey. This dependency creates a powerful incentive for Ankara to maintain a stable and predictable relationship with Tehran. Furthermore, Iran and Turkey’s economic hardships, particularly Iran’s isolation from multilateral organizations and an abundant amount of countries around the world due to international sanctions, encourage stronger relations to promote energy security, international trade, and even sanctions evasion. For Iran, Turkey serves as a vital economic lifeline, providing a conduit for trade and access to international markets that are otherwise closed off. For Turkey, access to Iranian energy is critical for its growing economy. However, this relationship is not without its risks; Turkey has a lot to lose diplomatically, economically, and strategically from its relations with Iran, particularly if those relations are perceived to undermine international sanctions regimes. This delicate balance underscores the pragmatic nature of their economic bond.

Geopolitical Fault Lines: Competing for Regional Influence

While economic ties bind them, the geopolitical landscape reveals significant fault lines in Iran and Turkey relations. The two states have a complex relationship, characterized by direct competition over influence in key regions such as Syria and the Caucasus. This competition often manifests through supporting opposing proxies as part of a broader proxy conflict. As tensions between Iran and Turkey grow, experts in Tehran often warn about Iran's declining regional influence, while Ankara's ambition to restore a degree of its historical Ottoman influence is a frequently cited concern. Despite divergent foreign policy priorities and conflicting interests, both powers attempt to compartmentalize their relations, handling geopolitical and economic issues in isolation from each other, a strategy that is increasingly difficult to maintain in a highly interconnected region.

Syria and the Caucasus: A Proxy Battleground

The Syrian conflict has been a primary arena for the geopolitical competition between Iran and Turkey. Iran has heavily backed the Assad regime, viewing it as a crucial link in its "axis of resistance" and a strategic outpost against Israeli and American influence. Conversely, Turkey has supported various opposition groups, aiming to counter Assad's rule, contain Kurdish aspirations, and expand its own sphere of influence. This direct opposition through proxies has led to significant friction, with both sides viewing the other's actions in Syria as detrimental to their national interests. Similarly, in the Caucasus, particularly concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iran and Turkey have found themselves on opposing sides, with Turkey strongly backing Azerbaijan and Iran maintaining a more nuanced stance, often leaning towards Armenia or expressing concerns about Turkish expansionism near its borders. These proxy battles highlight the deep-seated mistrust and the struggle for regional hegemony that define a significant aspect of Iran and Turkey relations.

The Gaza War's Shadow: Diverging Interests Amidst Crisis

The ongoing war on Gaza has cast a long shadow over regional dynamics, further complicating Iran and Turkey relations. While both Iran and Türkiye ostensibly oppose any regional spillover of the war on Gaza, sources of friction remain as the two states are motivated by diverging interests. Turkey's pursuit of economic relations with Israel, even amidst strong rhetorical condemnation of Israeli actions, may diverge significantly from Iran's objectives. Tehran, on the other hand, actively leverages the Gaza war to enhance its regional influence through proxy groups, often escalating tensions and challenging the status quo. This divergence was evident in the backdrop of the high-level meeting in Ankara in January 2024, where the war on Gaza and related clashes across the region provided an inescapable context. Despite shared rhetoric against Israeli actions, the practical approaches and strategic goals of Tehran and Ankara in response to the crisis reveal underlying differences that continue to shape their complex relationship.

High-Level Engagements: Diplomacy Amidst Discord

Despite the persistent geopolitical competition and diverging interests, high-level diplomatic engagements remain a critical component of Iran and Turkey relations. These meetings serve as vital channels for communication, allowing both sides to manage tensions, discuss bilateral issues, and explore areas of potential cooperation. On January 24, the presidents of Iran and Türkiye, Ebrahim Raisi and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, respectively, met in Ankara amid a rapidly deteriorating security situation in the Middle East. This meeting, which had been postponed twice, underscored the urgency of dialogue in a volatile environment. While the discussions covered a broad range of bilateral topics, the war on Gaza and related clashes across the region provided an inescapable backdrop, highlighting the pressing need for coordination, or at least de-escalation.

The diplomatic presence of Iran in Turkey is substantial, with its embassy in Ankara and consulates general in Istanbul, Trabzon, and Erzurum, indicating a robust network for bilateral engagement. However, even these diplomatic channels are not immune to friction. Recently, Turkey and Iran's foreign ministries invited their envoys for meetings days after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's remarks on Tehran's regional policies triggered a wave of media speculation and concern. Such incidents demonstrate the delicate balance in their relationship, where even seemingly minor diplomatic statements can lead to significant reactions, necessitating immediate high-level intervention to manage perceptions and prevent escalation. These frequent diplomatic exchanges, whether routine or crisis-driven, are essential for maintaining a semblance of stability and managing the inherent complexities of Iran and Turkey relations.

The Nuclear Question and Western Relations

The issue of Iran's nuclear program is another significant, albeit nuanced, aspect of Iran and Turkey relations, particularly when viewed through the lens of their respective ties with the United States and the West. The United States and Turkey generally differ on Iran's nuclear program largely over tactics, not strategic goals. While Washington has historically pursued a policy of maximum pressure and sanctions, Ankara has often advocated for a more diplomatic approach, emphasizing dialogue and de-escalation. However, Turkey's main fear is that Iran's acquisition of nuclear arms could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, a scenario that would profoundly destabilize its neighborhood and undermine its own security interests. This shared concern about nuclear proliferation, despite differing tactical approaches, forms a crucial, albeit often unspoken, common ground.

The future trajectory of Iran's relations with the West could significantly impact its ties with Turkey. Should a new Iranian leadership, such as Pezeshkian, adopt a more conciliatory approach toward the West, potentially reducing nuclear tensions and lifting sanctions, it could reshape the diplomatic landscape. A less isolated Iran might find it easier to engage with Turkey on a broader range of issues, potentially reducing the need for sanctions evasion strategies that complicate Ankara's international standing. Conversely, a more confrontational Iran could further strain relations, pushing Turkey closer to Western positions and potentially limiting economic cooperation. This dynamic highlights how global geopolitical shifts, particularly those involving Iran's nuclear ambitions and its relationship with major powers, directly influence the delicate balance of Iran and Turkey relations.

Future Prospects: Overcoming Tensions and Sustaining Cooperation

Looking ahead, a fundamental question remains: Can Iran and Turkey overcome political tensions and work together more effectively? While a significant shift in their relationship, such as a full-fledged alliance, might not be on the horizon, cooperation is expected to persist in critical areas such as counterterrorism, fighting drug trafficking, and managing border security. These are pragmatic necessities that transcend ideological divides, as both nations face common threats from non-state actors and organized crime. The ongoing dialogue, even amidst public disagreements, suggests a mutual recognition of the benefits of maintaining functional ties.

However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. Due to Iran’s isolation from multilateral organizations and an abundant amount of countries around the world, Turkey has a lot to lose diplomatically, economically, and strategically from its relations. Ankara must carefully balance its economic interests with Tehran against its broader foreign policy objectives, which often align with Western powers. This balancing act will continue to define the future of Iran and Turkey relations. The ability of both countries to compartmentalize their competing geopolitical interests from their mutually beneficial economic and security cooperation will be key to sustaining a relationship that, despite its complexities, remains vital for regional stability. The future will likely see a continuation of this pragmatic engagement, where necessity dictates cooperation, even as ambition fuels competition.

Conclusion: A Pragmatic Partnership in a Volatile Region

The relationship between Iran and Turkey is a testament to the enduring power of pragmatism in international relations. Characterized by a unique blend of centuries-old peace, modern geopolitical rivalry, and undeniable economic interdependence, Iran and Turkey relations defy simple categorization. While they compete fiercely for influence in Syria and the Caucasus, supporting opposing proxies, they simultaneously prioritize robust trade, energy security, and cooperation on transnational issues like counterterrorism and drug trafficking. The high-level diplomatic engagements, even amidst heightened regional tensions, underscore a mutual understanding that dialogue, however difficult, is essential for managing a volatile neighborhood.

As the Middle East continues to navigate complex challenges, the dynamic between Ankara and Tehran will remain a critical factor in regional stability. Their ability to compartmentalize their differences, prioritizing shared economic and security interests over ideological divides, will be crucial for the future. We invite you to share your thoughts in the comments below: How do you see the future of Iran and Turkey relations evolving amidst ongoing regional shifts? What role do you believe economic ties will play in shaping their interactions? For more in-depth analysis of Middle Eastern geopolitics, explore our other articles on regional power dynamics and energy security.

Iran Wants To Negotiate After Crippling Israeli Strikes | The Daily Caller

Israel targets Iran's Defense Ministry headquarters as Tehran unleashes

Iran Opens Airspace Only For India, 1,000 Students To Land In Delhi Tonight

HeadlineSphere