What Will Iran Do Next? Decoding Tehran's Strategic Calculus

Curt Torp 20 Jun 2025

The Middle East remains a powder keg, perpetually on the brink of wider conflict. Recent events, marked by swift retaliatory strikes and chilling warnings, have once again thrust the region into the global spotlight. As the world holds its breath, a pivotal question echoes across diplomatic corridors and strategic war rooms: What will Iran do next? The answer to this complex query holds profound implications, not just for regional stability but for the intricate web of international relations and global security.

From the streets of Tehran to the halls of power in Washington D.C. and Jerusalem, the stakes have never been higher. The assassination of key figures, coupled with direct missile and drone exchanges, has brought the long-simmering tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States to a critical juncture. Understanding Tehran's potential moves requires a deep dive into its strategic imperatives, military capabilities, internal dynamics, and the intricate dance of regional geopolitics.

Table of Contents:

The Shifting Sands of Middle East Geopolitics
Iran's Strategic Imperatives: Why Tehran Acts
- The Need to Project Strength
- Deterrence and Defense Capabilities
The Shadow of Nuclear Ambition
Proxy Power and Asymmetric Warfare
The Uncomfortable Truth: Conventional Military Disparity
Potential Scenarios: What Could Happen Next?
The Role of External Actors: US and Israel
- The US Dilemma: War or Diplomacy?
Navigating the Brink: The World Watches

The Shifting Sands of Middle East Geopolitics

The Middle East has long been a crucible of competing interests, historical grievances, and strategic rivalries. Iran, with its unique blend of revolutionary ideology and pragmatic statecraft, stands at the heart of many of these tensions. The recent killings of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh have further inflamed an already volatile environment, leaving Israel and the broader Middle East poised and waiting for the inevitable counter-response. This precarious situation underscores the delicate balance of power and the constant threat of miscalculation. The precise details of what happened at around 2 a.m. ET in Tehran, following Israeli airstrikes targeting the capital, will dictate what comes next, as Iran looks to present a narrative that justifies and fashions its response. This isn't merely about retaliation; it's about signaling intent, projecting strength, and maintaining credibility in a region where perception often equals reality. The intricate dance of deterrence and escalation means that every action, no matter how small, is carefully weighed for its potential ripple effects. The world watches, trying to decipher the signals and anticipate the next move in this high-stakes geopolitical chess game.

Iran's Strategic Imperatives: Why Tehran Acts

Iran's actions are driven by a complex interplay of internal and external factors, all aimed at ensuring the survival and regional influence of the Islamic Republic. At its core, Tehran seeks to project an image of resilience and strength, demonstrating that it cannot be bullied. This imperative was starkly evident after the major attack it reeled from, prompting a rocket barrage on Israel. Two weeks later, and after messaging what they were going to do, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel. While most were intercepted and there was little damage, the act itself was a powerful statement. It needed to strike back to show the world it can’t be bullied, a clear signal that violations of its sovereignty or attacks on its assets will not go unanswered. This is a fundamental aspect of its foreign policy, rooted in the legacy of its late founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, whose portrait often accompanies the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in public appearances.

The Need to Project Strength

For Iran, projecting strength is not just about military might; it's about maintaining regional credibility and deterring potential adversaries. The regime understands that any perceived weakness could invite further aggression or undermine its network of proxy forces. When Iran says its next move "will be remembered for centuries" in chilling warnings, it's not merely hyperbole; it's a declaration of intent to leave an indelible mark on the geopolitical landscape. This rhetoric, often accompanied by displays of military hardware like missiles during anniversaries of the Islamic Revolution, serves to bolster domestic support and send a clear message to external foes. The goal is to ensure that any future actions against Iran are weighed against the potential for a devastating and historically significant response. This strategic communication is as vital as any military deployment in shaping regional dynamics and ensuring its perceived invincibility.

Deterrence and Defense Capabilities

Despite its bold pronouncements, Iran operates with a keen awareness of its military limitations. It knows that its missile defence systems are comparatively weak, and that its military senior leadership is in disarray, with intelligence services at war internally, playing the ultimate blame game. This internal strife and external vulnerability necessitate a robust deterrence strategy. What we do know is that Iran is believed to have the largest missile programme in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic missiles available with varying ranges and speeds. This vast arsenal serves as its primary deterrent against conventional military superiority, particularly from nations like Israel and the United States. The threat of a massive missile volley, potentially targeting Israeli residential areas rather than just military bases, is a crucial element of its defensive posture. This capacity for asymmetric retaliation is designed to inflict unacceptable costs on any aggressor, thereby preventing larger-scale conventional attacks.

The Shadow of Nuclear Ambition

The specter of Iran's nuclear program looms large over all discussions of its future actions. The 2006 photo of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waving next to a portrait of Ayatollah Khomeini underscores the continuity of the regime's long-term strategic goals, which have historically included a nuclear dimension. The international community's concern over Iran's nuclear capabilities has led to stringent sanctions, creating a complex dilemma. The possibility of the United States bombing Iranian nuclear facilities has been a recurring topic, with President Trump having answered several questions about Iran, including whether the US was moving closer to striking such sites. One scenario posits that in exchange for foregoing nuclear weapons, the U.S. lifts sanctions on Iran, allowing the regime to survive, albeit a shell of its former self, limping along more or less, stuck with a theocratic regime that is unpopular and living on borrowed time. This outcome suggests a pragmatic, albeit fragile, stability. However, the continuous advancements in Iran's nuclear program, coupled with its rhetoric, keep the world on edge. The pursuit of nuclear capabilities, even if only for "peaceful" purposes, grants Iran significant leverage and complicates any military calculus by its adversaries. This nuclear shadow influences not only Iran's defensive strategies but also its regional assertiveness, as it perceives nuclear capability as the ultimate guarantor of its security and influence.

Proxy Power and Asymmetric Warfare

Tehran's strategic genius lies in its unparalleled ability to build and manage proxy military and political forces across the Middle East. While Tehran may be without peer when it comes to building and managing proxy military and political forces, in areas of conventional military and intelligence activity and special operations, it is very much the inferior. This disparity means Iran heavily relies on its network of non-state actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and various militias in Iraq and Yemen, to project power and exert influence without direct military confrontation. These proxies serve as an extension of Iran's foreign policy, allowing it to engage in asymmetric warfare, harass adversaries, and maintain a degree of deniability. The killings of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh are direct hits to this proxy network, compelling Iran to consider its response carefully. The success of today's Iranian attack will determine where things go next. If Iran feels that it has sufficiently responded to the Israeli attack against its facility, then the region will step back from the brink of a wider war. However, if Iran’s attack is overly successful, then Israel will respond, potentially escalating the conflict further. This intricate dance of proxy warfare and calculated retaliation is a hallmark of Iran's regional strategy, allowing it to punch above its weight class in the conventional military arena. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on the ability of its proxies to inflict damage while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability for Tehran.

The Uncomfortable Truth: Conventional Military Disparity

Despite its vast missile arsenal and sophisticated proxy network, Iran faces an uncomfortable truth: its conventional military and intelligence capabilities are significantly inferior to those of its primary adversaries, particularly the United States and Israel. This reality is a critical factor in understanding what will Iran do next. The data suggests that while Tehran excels in building and managing proxy forces, its conventional military, intelligence activity, and special operations are very much inferior. This disparity is not lost on Iranian strategists, who understand that a direct, conventional confrontation would likely result in overwhelming defeat. This vulnerability has forced Iran to adopt a strategy of deterrence through asymmetric means and the threat of regional disruption. It explains why Iran needed to strike back to show the world it can’t be bullied, but it also knows that its missile defence systems are comparatively weak, that its military senior leadership is in disarray, and that its intelligence services are at war internally, playing the ultimate blame game. These internal weaknesses further constrain its options for a large-scale conventional response. The focus on missile technology and proxy warfare is a direct consequence of this conventional military gap, allowing Iran to exert influence and deter aggression without risking an all-out war it cannot win. This strategic limitation dictates a cautious approach to direct confrontation, favoring instead calculated retaliations and indirect engagement.

Potential Scenarios: What Could Happen Next?

Forecasting Iran's next move involves considering several potential scenarios, each with its own set of triggers and consequences. The future trajectory of the region hinges on whether the current tensions escalate, de-escalate, or lead to a fundamental shift in Iran's internal dynamics. Eight experts have weighed in on what happens if the United States bombs Iran, highlighting the range of possibilities from limited strikes to full-blown war. As the U.S. weighs the option of heading back into a war in the Middle East, here are some ways the attack could play out.

De-escalation and Status Quo

One possibility is a return to a fragile status quo, where both sides, having demonstrated their capabilities and resolve, pull back from the brink. If Iran feels that it has sufficiently responded to the Israeli attack against its facility, then the region will step back from the brink of a wider war. This scenario assumes that the recent exchanges served their purpose as a form of "face-saving" retaliation, allowing all parties to claim victory or at least avoid outright defeat. It would likely involve continued covert operations, proxy conflicts, and diplomatic maneuvering, but without direct, large-scale military engagements. The lifting of sanctions in exchange for foregoing nuclear weapons, where the regime survives albeit a shell of its former self, and Iran limps along more or less, stuck with a theocratic regime that is unpopular and living on borrowed time, also falls into this category of a managed, albeit uncomfortable, equilibrium.

Escalation and Open Conflict

Conversely, the region could plunge into open warfare. This is a real possibility again, with Israel braced for an attack by Iran, which vowed to retaliate for the July 31 killing in Tehran of the political chief of the Hamas. If Iran’s attack is overly successful, then Israel will respond, potentially leading to a dangerous cycle of escalation. This could involve Iran's next volley of missiles targeting Israeli residential areas, rather than military bases, a significant escalation in itself. For the United States, this could mean heading back into a war in the Middle East, with potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities or other strategic targets. Open warfare would have catastrophic consequences for the region and global economy, potentially drawing in other regional and international powers. The inherent risks of miscalculation are extremely high in such a volatile environment.

Internal Collapse of the Regime

A less direct, but equally impactful, scenario is the internal collapse of the Iranian regime. This outcome, while not directly triggered by a single military strike, could be accelerated by sustained external pressure, economic hardship from sanctions, or a failed military adventure. In this scenario, the Iranian regime collapses, and the Ayatollah’s reign is over. This is a highly speculative outcome, as the Iranian government has proven remarkably resilient in the face of internal dissent and external pressure for decades. However, the internal disarray within its military senior leadership and intelligence services, playing the ultimate blame game, suggests underlying fragilities that could, under extreme circumstances, lead to an unraveling. This would fundamentally reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, but the transition would likely be tumultuous and unpredictable.

The Role of External Actors: US and Israel

The actions of the United States and Israel are intrinsically linked to what will Iran do next. Their strategic objectives, military capabilities, and diplomatic postures significantly influence Tehran's calculus. Israel, in particular, has consistently maintained a hardline stance against Iran's nuclear program and its regional proxy network. The recent Israeli airstrikes in Tehran demonstrate its willingness to take direct action, even at the risk of escalation. Israel is braced for an attack by Iran, which vowed to retaliate for the July 31 killing in Tehran of the political chief of the Hamas. This ongoing tit-for-tat highlights a dangerous dynamic where both sides are testing the other's resolve.

The US Dilemma: War or Diplomacy?

For the United States, the dilemma is profound: how to contain Iran without triggering a wider conflict. The option of heading back into a war in the Middle East is a heavy one, weighed against the immense human and economic costs of past engagements. Eight experts have offered perspectives on what happens if the United States bombs Iran, outlining various potential outcomes from limited strikes to full-scale invasion. President Trump has previously answered questions about Iran, including the possibility of striking Iranian nuclear facilities. The US policy oscillates between maximum pressure campaigns through sanctions and attempts at diplomatic engagement. The challenge lies in finding a balance that deters Iranian aggression while avoiding an all-out war. The outcome of this strategic balancing act will largely dictate the immediate future of the region and influence Iran's decisions on its next moves.

Navigating the Brink: The World Watches

The current geopolitical climate has, potentially, brought the region one step closer to a wider conflict. The question of what will Iran do next is not merely academic; it is a critical inquiry that directly impacts global energy markets, international security, and the lives of millions. The recent events, from the killings of key figures to the direct missile exchanges, underscore the fragility of peace in the Middle East. Where things go next will depend on the relative success of today’s Iranian attack, and the subsequent responses from Israel and the United States. The international community, including major powers and regional stakeholders, is closely monitoring the situation, urging restraint and de-escalation. The future remains uncertain, poised on a knife-edge between calculated deterrence and catastrophic escalation. The world watches, hoping that diplomacy and strategic prudence will prevail over the dangerous allure of military confrontation. Understanding Iran's strategic calculus, its strengths, its weaknesses, and its imperatives is crucial for anyone seeking to comprehend the unfolding drama in this vital part of the world.

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is perpetually in flux, and Iran's role within it is undeniably central. As we've explored, Tehran's next moves will be dictated by a complex interplay of internal vulnerabilities, regional ambitions, and external pressures. Whether it opts for further calculated retaliation, a return to a fragile status quo, or an unforeseen escalation, the implications will resonate far beyond its borders. The world remains on high alert, meticulously analyzing every signal and preparing for potential ripple effects. This ongoing saga is a stark reminder of the delicate balance of power and the ever-present potential for rapid shifts in international relations.

What are your thoughts on Iran's next likely steps? Do you believe de-escalation is possible, or are we on the path to a wider conflict? Share your insights in the comments below, and don't forget to share this article with others interested in understanding the complexities of Middle East geopolitics. For more in-depth analysis on global affairs, explore other articles on our site.

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