Iran's Next President: A Pivotal Choice For The Islamic Republic

Eveline McDermott 23 Jun 2025

**The sudden and tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024 plunged the Islamic Republic of Iran into an unexpected and critical period of political transition. With the nation grappling with the loss of its hardline leader, the immediate focus shifted to the urgent matter of electing Iran's next president. This snap election, brought forward from its scheduled 2025 date, presented both a challenge and an opportunity for a country navigating complex internal dynamics and a volatile international landscape. The outcome of this closely watched electoral process, culminating in a critical choice for the Iranian people, will undoubtedly shape the country's trajectory for years to come.** The stakes could not be higher. Iran stands at a crossroads, facing persistent economic pressures, social unrest, and intricate geopolitical challenges. The individual who assumes the presidency will inherit these formidable issues, tasked with steering the nation through turbulent waters while adhering to the overarching vision of the Supreme Leader. Understanding the electoral process, the key contenders, and the broader implications of this election is crucial for anyone seeking to comprehend the future direction of this influential Middle Eastern power. ---

The Unexpected Shift: Raisi's Demise and Snap Elections
Understanding the Iranian Presidency: Beyond a Figurehead
The Contenders: Who Vied for Iran's Top Executive Role?
Masoud Pezeshkian: A Reformist Voice in a Conservative Landscape
The Hardline Faction: Jalili and Qalibaf's Vision for Iran
Geopolitical Ramifications: Iran's Allies and Adversaries
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for Iran's Next President
Conclusion

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The Unexpected Shift: Raisi's Demise and Snap Elections

The death of President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19, 2024, in a helicopter accident sent shockwaves through Iran and beyond. Raisi, a prominent hardliner and once seen as a likely successor to the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, died in office, leaving the Islamic Republic’s hardline establishment facing an uncertain future. Following his demise, Mohammad Mokhber, a hardliner with extensive government experience, was named interim president. The Iranian constitution mandates that in such circumstances, new presidential elections must be held within 50 days.

The Constitutional Mandate and Election Timeline

According to the Iranian constitution, the people elect the president through universal adult suffrage every four years. However, Raisi's death necessitated an early election. Iranian state news IRNA confirmed that Iran’s presidential elections would take place on Friday, June 28, 2024. Candidates were given a short window to register, from May 30 to June 3, with campaigning running from June 12 until the day before the election. This compressed timeline underscored the urgency with which the establishment sought to ensure continuity and stability. The swift organization of the election, despite the national mourning period, highlighted the robustness of Iran's political system in responding to unforeseen leadership changes. The process, while expedited, still adhered to the fundamental principles outlined in the constitution, ensuring a legitimate transition of power.

Understanding the Iranian Presidency: Beyond a Figurehead

In Iran, the president serves as the head of the country’s executive branch. While a powerful position, it is crucial to understand that the president operates within the framework of the Islamic Republic's unique political structure, where the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority. The president is responsible for implementing the Supreme Leader's policies, managing the day-to-day affairs of the government, and representing Iran on the international stage. However, key decisions on foreign policy, defense, and major domestic issues ultimately rest with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This dual leadership structure means that while the president is the public face of the government, the Supreme Leader's influence remains decisive in all major strategic directions.

The Vetting Process and Supreme Leader's Influence

The election of Iran's next president is not a straightforward democratic exercise in the Western sense. It involves a closely vetted election process. The Guardian Council, a powerful body composed of six clerics appointed by the Supreme Leader and six jurists nominated by the judiciary and approved by parliament, plays a crucial role. This council vets all potential candidates, approving only those deemed loyal to the Islamic Republic's principles and the Supreme Leader. On Sunday, the council presented the final slate of candidates for the presidential election to be held on June 28. This vetting process significantly narrows the field, often excluding prominent reformist or moderate figures, thereby ensuring that the final choice remains within the ideological boundaries acceptable to the establishment. The Supreme Leader's hand is visible throughout this process, shaping the pool of candidates and influencing the political discourse.

The Contenders: Who Vied for Iran's Top Executive Role?

The snap election saw a diverse, yet carefully selected, group of candidates vying for the presidency. Following the Guardian Council's vetting, six individuals were approved to contest the first round of the election. These included figures from across the conservative and reformist spectrums, each bringing their own vision for Iran's future. The initial list included Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Alireza Zakani, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Saeed Jalili, and Masoud Pezeshkian. Their campaigns offered glimpses into the various policy directions Iran might take, from engagement with the West to staunch resistance.

First Round Results and Their Implications

The early presidential elections in Iran were held on June 28, 2024. The results of the first round were closely watched, as they would determine whether a clear winner emerged or if a runoff election would be necessary. Four main candidates contested this round, with the data indicating a clear frontrunner and a strong second place. Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist candidate, won 44% of the vote. Saeed Jalili, a prominent hardliner, secured 40%. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a pragmatic conservative, received 14%, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi garnered less than 1% of the vote. These results were highly significant. Since no candidate achieved an outright majority (over 50%), a second round of voting, or runoff election, was necessitated between the top two contenders: Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili. This runoff, scheduled for July 5, 2024, presented the Iranian electorate with a stark choice between a reformist who campaigned on modest social reforms and talks with the United States, and a hardliner committed to the principles of resistance and self-reliance. The first-round results highlighted the enduring divisions within Iranian society and the political establishment, setting the stage for a decisive final vote for Iran's next president.

Masoud Pezeshkian: A Reformist Voice in a Conservative Landscape

Masoud Pezeshkian emerged as the unexpected frontrunner in the first round of the snap presidential election, securing 44% of the vote. His candidacy offered a glimmer of hope for those yearning for a shift from the hardline policies that characterized Ebrahim Raisi's three-year government. Pezeshkian, an experienced politician and former health minister, campaigned on a platform of modest social reforms and, crucially, talks with the United States over the country's nuclear program and broader relations. His reformist stance resonated with a segment of the Iranian electorate weary of isolation and economic hardship. He represents a faction that believes engagement with the West, particularly regarding the 2015 nuclear deal, could alleviate some of Iran's pressing economic woes. This contrasts sharply with Raisi's approach, who in 2017 ran for president for the first time and became the main candidate against Hassan Rouhani, a moderate who championed engagement with the West and Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal. Raisi's victory in 2021 marked a decisive turn towards a more confrontational stance. Pezeshkian's appeal lies in his promise to address domestic grievances, improve living standards, and potentially de-escalate tensions with international powers, offering a different vision for Iran's next president. His background as a medical doctor and his parliamentary experience lend him a degree of credibility and a reputation for pragmatism, even within the reformist camp, making him a compelling choice for many voters seeking a less confrontational path.

The Hardline Faction: Jalili and Qalibaf's Vision for Iran

While Masoud Pezeshkian represented the reformist inclination, the hardline and conservative factions were primarily embodied by Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Saeed Jalili, who secured 40% of the vote in the first round, is a staunch hardliner with a long history in Iran's security and foreign policy apparatus. He served as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator from 2007 to 2013 and is known for his unwavering adherence to the principles of the Islamic Revolution, advocating for a "resistance economy" and a firm stance against Western influence. His vision for Iran's next president emphasizes self-reliance, defiance against perceived external pressures, and a continuation of the anti-Western foreign policy that has defined much of the Islamic Republic's existence. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who garnered 14% of the vote, represents a more pragmatic conservative wing. A former Revolutionary Guard commander, police chief, and Tehran mayor, Qalibaf is currently the speaker of parliament. While undeniably a conservative, his background suggests a focus on practical governance and economic development, often willing to work within existing international frameworks, albeit from a position of strength. His campaign likely appealed to voters seeking stability and administrative competence without veering too far into reformist territory. The combined vote for Jalili and Qalibaf underscored the significant support for conservative and hardline ideologies within Iran, indicating that even if a reformist wins, the influence of these factions will remain potent in shaping the policies of Iran's next president.

Geopolitical Ramifications: Iran's Allies and Adversaries

The election of Iran's next president holds significant geopolitical implications, both for regional stability and international relations. Iran's foreign policy, while ultimately guided by the Supreme Leader, can be influenced in its implementation by the president. The funeral of Ebrahim Raisi offered a stark reminder of Iran's complex network of alliances and its position in the global arena. Emomali Rahman, Tajikistan’s president, attended, as did Iran’s allies from Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh and Islamic Jihad’s Ziyad al Nakhaleh. This presence underscored Iran's deep ties with the "Axis of Resistance" and its continued support for groups challenging Israeli and Western influence in the Middle East. The new president will inherit a foreign policy landscape marked by ongoing tensions with the United States and its allies, the lingering issue of the nuclear program, and regional conflicts. While President Donald Trump's past comments about attacking Iran ("President Trump is hoping for a peace deal with Iran in the next two weeks — but in the meantime is refining war plans to have the most effective airstrikes possible 'mapped out,' sources," and "President Trump said on Thursday that he would decide whether the United States will attack Iran 'within the next two weeks,' pivoting from recent comments that suggested an American strike," and "President Donald Trump has inched closer to ordering military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, approving operational attack plans while stopping short of authorizing an attack, the Wall") highlight a period of extreme hostility, the approach of Iran's next president could either exacerbate or de-escalate these tensions. A reformist president like Pezeshkian might seek renewed diplomatic engagement, potentially reviving the nuclear deal, while a hardliner like Jalili would likely maintain a confrontational stance, prioritizing regional influence and military deterrence. The choice of Iran's next president will therefore send a powerful signal about the country's future direction in its engagement with the world.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for Iran's Next President

The individual who becomes Iran's next president will face a daunting array of challenges, both domestic and international. Economically, Iran continues to grapple with the crippling effects of international sanctions, high inflation, and unemployment. Addressing these issues will require innovative solutions and potentially a re-evaluation of Iran's foreign policy to alleviate external pressures. Socially, there is significant discontent, particularly among the youth and women, regarding personal freedoms and governance. The new president will need to navigate these demands while maintaining the delicate balance with the conservative establishment. Internationally, the nuclear program remains a flashpoint. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the 2015 nuclear deal, has been largely defunct since the US withdrawal under the Trump administration. Whether Iran's next president pursues a path of renewed negotiations or further nuclear advancements will have profound implications for global security. Furthermore, Iran's role in regional conflicts, particularly in Yemen, Syria, and its support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, will continue to shape its relationships with neighboring countries and global powers. The choice for Iran's next president is not merely about domestic governance; it is about the very identity and strategic direction of a nation that sits at a critical geopolitical juncture. The ability of the new leader to balance internal demands with external pressures, while working within the ultimate authority of the Supreme Leader, will define their presidency and, by extension, Iran's future.

Conclusion

The unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi set in motion a rapid electoral process that culminated in a pivotal choice for the Iranian people. The first round of the early presidential elections on June 28, 2024, saw Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist, and Saeed Jalili, a hardliner, emerge as the leading contenders, necessitating a runoff election. This contest between a call for modest reforms and engagement with the West versus a commitment to staunch resistance and self-reliance encapsulates the fundamental debates shaping Iran's future. The individual who becomes Iran's next president will inherit a complex legacy of internal challenges and external pressures. Their decisions on economic policy, social reforms, and, crucially, international relations, will have far-reaching consequences for the Iranian populace and the broader Middle East. While the Supreme Leader's authority remains paramount, the president's role in implementing policies and representing the nation on the global stage is undeniable. As Iran navigates this critical juncture, the world watches closely, understanding that the choice of Iran's next president will profoundly impact the trajectory of this significant nation. What are your thoughts on the implications of this election for Iran and the wider region? Share your insights in the comments below, or explore our other articles on Middle Eastern politics to deepen your understanding of these complex dynamics.

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